Are Pop Mart Figures a Good Investment? The Honest Answer.
Most Pop Mart figures lose value after purchase. A select few — secret figures from hot IPs, limited editions, and Labubu rare colorways — appreciate 3–10x. The average blind box pull is worth less than retail the moment you open it. If you’re buying Pop Mart purely as an investment, you’re gambling on a speculative collectibles market. If you’re buying because you love the figures and might sell duplicates or extras, that’s realistic.
What Actually Appreciates
| Category | Typical Return | Timeframe | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labubu Secret figures | 5–20x | 6–24 months | Medium (reissue risk) |
| Labubu rare colorways | 2–5x | 3–12 months | Medium-high |
| China-exclusive limited editions | 2–10x | 6–36 months | Medium |
| Event/collab exclusives | 2–8x | 12–36 months | Low-medium |
| Discontinued series secrets | 3–15x | 24+ months | Low (no reissue possible) |
| Common figures (any series) | 0.3–0.8x | Immediate | Certain loss |
The pattern is clear: rarity + IP heat = appreciation. Common figures = depreciation. This isn’t specific to Pop Mart — it’s the economics of every blind box and trading card market ever created.
What Loses Value Immediately
- Common blind box pulls from current series. There are tens of thousands of identical Molly/Skullpanda/Dimoo figures in circulation. Supply vastly exceeds collector demand for any single common variant.
- “Hot” figures during their hype window. Labubu common colors that sold for $40 in December 2024 dropped to $25 by March 2025 as more supply entered the market.
- Anything you can still buy at retail. If it’s sitting on Tmall shelves for ¥69, nobody’s paying you ¥100 for it on the secondary market.
The Investment Math: Blind Box Expected Value
Pop Mart’s blind box economics are designed to favor Pop Mart, not you.
A typical series has 12 designs: 10 common (1 per case each), 1 rare (1 per 2–3 cases), 1 secret (1 per 72–144 boxes). At ¥69 per box:
- Expected value of a common pull: ~¥40–50 (below retail)
- Expected value of a rare pull: ~¥100–150 (above retail, but you need to pull it)
- Expected value of a secret pull: ~¥1,000–2,000 (massively above retail, but 1/72 odds)
Your expected value per blind box across all outcomes: roughly ¥50–60. You’re paying ¥69 for something worth ¥55 on average. The house edge is about 15–20%.
Sealed cases fare better: a 12-piece case at ¥828 guarantees no duplicates and roughly follows the rarity distribution. Your expected value is closer to ¥700–800 — still a loss, but a smaller one, and you’ll likely get at least one rare.
Three Smarter Pop Mart Investment Strategies
Strategy 1: Buy What You Love, Sell Extras
Don’t approach Pop Mart as an investment vehicle. Approach it as a collecting hobby where you can occasionally recoup costs. Buy the series you genuinely want, keep what you love, sell the duplicates. You won’t turn a profit, but you’ll minimize losses and enjoy the process.
Strategy 2: Hunt Discontinued Secrets
Secrets from discontinued series are the closest thing to a safe bet in Pop Mart investing. No more supply is coming, demand from completionist collectors is steady, and prices tend to drift up over time. Look for:
- Series discontinued 2+ years ago
- Secrets from IPs that still have active collector communities
- Verified authentic, with scannable QR code
Strategy 3: Event/Collab Exclusives
Pop Mart event exclusives (Shanghai Toy Show, DesignerCon, brand collabs) have fixed edition sizes and don’t get reissued. If you can buy at retail, the appreciation path is reliable. The challenge is access — these often require physical presence or Chinese platform accounts.
What NOT to Do
- Don’t buy common figures at resale hoping they’ll go up. They won’t. Pop Mart will keep printing them.
- Don’t treat current-series secrets as long-term holds. Until the series is confirmed discontinued, reissue risk is real.
- Don’t buy “investment lots” from strangers. If someone’s selling 20 “rare” Pop Mart figures as an investment package, they’ve already cherry-picked the good ones.
- Don’t go into debt for blind boxes. The expected return is negative. This is collecting, not investing.
FAQ
What’s the most valuable Pop Mart figure ever?
Labubu secret figures from the Exciting Macaron series have hit $500–800 in authenticated sales. Limited Labubu artist proofs and event one-offs can go higher, but those are essentially unavailable to regular collectors.
How do I know if a series is discontinued?
Pop Mart rarely announces discontinuations formally. Signs: the series disappears from the official Tmall store, hasn’t restocked in 3+ months, and secondary market listings are drying up. The Pop Mart collector community on Reddit (r/PopMart) usually tracks this.
Should I keep figures sealed or display them?
For investment: sealed. A factory-sealed blind box with scannable QR code is worth more than a loose figure with card, which is worth more than a loose figure alone. For enjoyment: display them — that’s the whole point.
Can I make a living flipping Pop Mart?
Almost certainly not. The few people making consistent money are running bot operations at scale, buying hundreds of boxes per drop, and operating on thin margins after platform fees and shipping. For an individual collector, this is a hobby that might occasionally offset costs — not a career.
Where’s the best place to sell Pop Mart figures?
Xianyu for the Chinese market (largest buyer pool, lowest fees). StockX and eBay for international buyers. Facebook Pop Mart groups for community sales with no platform fees. Guide: Xianyu Buying & Selling.
Related: Why Is Labubu So Expensive? | Best Pop Mart Shopping Agent | Xianyu Guide